US strategy could result in nuclear war

(David Wroe)

A US military strategy being mapped out to deal with the growing power of China in the western Pacific - a plan that would inevitably involve Australia - could escalate into a nuclear war, a leading think tank has warned. The Australian Strategic Policy Institute has written in a new paper that the fashionable ''AirSea Battle'' concept, which Washington strategists are developing to keep the US's grip on its sea and air power near China, contains ''uncertainties and potential shortfalls'' that could heighten the nuclear risk. The concept risks making the Chinese military an enemy. 

The paper, written by the institute's senior analyst for defence strategy, Benjamin Schreer, urges the Australian government to keep a cautious distance from the plan for now. Australia would likely play a role in the strategy, particularly with US Marines stationed in Darwin. The plan assumes any conflict between the US and China - most likely over Taiwan or Chinese skirmishing with Japan - would remain below the level of nuclear strikes.

But Dr Schreer writes that "such an outcome is far from certain". Part of any US plan to strike at China would involve "blinding" the People's Liberation Army by hitting its surveillance, intelligence and command systems.

Advertisement

This could provoke panic on the Chinese side and "consequently increase the chances of Chinese nuclear pre-emption", he writes.

"AirSea Battle thus raises the spectre of a series of miscalculations on both sides if Beijing perceives conventional attacks on its homeland as an attempt to disarm its nuclear strike capability.''

The paper coincides with rising tensions between China and Japan over territorial disputes in the East China Sea, and between China and Vietnam in the South China Sea.

US military planners are developing the AirSea Battle plan in response to the shift in the strategic balance as China's growing military might threatens to end more than half a century of US dominance on the western Pacific rim.

China's long-range missiles, submarines and stealth bomber squadrons could soon threaten US bases and aircraft carrier groups in the region, potentially deterring the US from coming to the aid of Taiwan or Japan in the event of a conflict.

The plan sees US forces withstanding the first round of Chinese attacks, then carry out their "blinding" campaign. US carrier battle groups would then hit Chinese missile launchers. Meanwhile, US submarines and long-range missiles would strike at the Chinese airforce. The US could also blockade oil supplies and other resources - likely with Australian help.

While Australia would inevitably be drawn into any such conflict, the institute urges the government not to publicly endorse the plan for now, but rather demand a clearer explanation of how Washington would enact the plan, and its political goals. "[It] risks making the Chinese military an enemy'' when the US, Australian and allied grand strategy is ''aimed at integrating Beijing in a co-operative Asian security order".